Dreval V., Faculty of International Economic Relations, 2nd- year student,
Financial University under the Government of the RF, Moscow, Russia
Abstract: The special value in national economy is engaged the petrochemical industry. Volatility of Ukraine, on the one hand, and inevitability of Russian gas supplies to the countries of Europe through the Ukrainian GTS, on the other, became an excellent reason for speculation on a gas question, in need of permission of disagreements between Ukraine and Russia.
Keywords: gas conflicts, transit, difficulties, ultimatums, agreement, Ukraine, Russia.
If to trace history of the gas conflicts, then it is easily possible to see the political background practically in each of them. The political implication was accurately shown also during the conflict in 2014 when gas war was followed by extremely difficult and intense relations between two states.
It is possible to call the conflict, which arose at the beginning of spring of 2014, the loudest in the history of the gas relations between Russia and Ukraine. To judge who is right, who is guilty in this situation rather difficult because both sides in this situation departed from the undertaken obligations in view of some kind of reasons. The complexity of the conflict consists in futility of confrontation on both sides that suggests that in case of continuation of negotiations in language of ultimatums both sides will be losers.
It is rather a strange opportunity to dictate the terms by Ukrainian side, because real alternatives to the Russian deliveries, except reverse gas which can cover only a part of Ukraine needs, in short-term and medium-term prospects simply aren’t present. At first sight it can seem that if Russia is an individual seller of gas for Ukraine, all terms have to be dictated by the Russian side. In practice Russia is forced to listen and take into attention the opinion of the Ukrainian partners for a number of reasons:
1) In the course of gas transit to the European consumer, the lion's share is the share of the Ukrainian GTS;
2) Ukraine takes the third place among all clients of «Gazprom»;
3) Increase in prices for gas leads to rise in price or reduction of production which is used by production in Russia.
At the same time Ukraine has considerable delays on payments for gas. Earlier a bill has been made out «Naftogaz» for a bag more than 18,5 billion dollars for not chosen gas in 2012 and 2013; 8,2 billion— for 2014 and 2,5 billion dollars — for the 2015th. Taking into account the account for 5,3 billion dollars for 2016 the total amount of a debt has reached nearly 35 billion dollars.
Despite the discounts provided by «Gazprom» and preferences with Ukraine Government of it is heavy to achieve consensus and in this situation «Gazprom» had to apply more drastic measures not to lose the market. In this regard Russia has translated Ukraine from June 16, because of growth of debt (by estimates of Gazprom, she exceeds $5 billion) and impossibility to agree with the Ukrainian government about the price, on an advance payment of gas deliveries, Russian gas supplies to Ukraine have stopped ; on the gas pipeline was delivered only the gas intended for transit to Europe, about 185 million cubic meters a day. Reverse supply of gas from Europe began to be carried out.
From the Ukraine point of view the risks remain the same - to stay without gas, from the Russia point of view, besides above-mentioned difficulties, there can be a prospect of loud judicial proceedings in Stockholm that won't be the cause for reputation improvement of the Russian gas monopolist on the world scene at all. Besides image risks there is a serious probability of loss in judicial proceedings that can create a serious precedent for future relations in gas questions. In case of refusal from JSC Gazprom to carry out the resolution of court, such decision can be the final cause for revision of the European power policy in the relations with Russia.
The translation of gas negotiations from the political plane in economic would become a reasonable exit from current situation for both sides that would give them the base for arrangements which would be formed especially on economic factors. The new gas contract which has to consider all disputed and problem points which have arisen for previous years has to become the result of a discussion. Such decision would allow both sides to stop all speculation on a gas question once and forever and to begin to receive mutual benefit from the economic relations in this plane.
3.Russia is ready to deliver 5 billion cubic meters of gas to Ukraine on an advance payment // lb.ua, 6.10.2014 https://lb.ua/economics/2014/10/06/281691_rossiya_gotova_postavit_5_mlrd.html
5. Ukraine peacefully buys gas from Germany for $375,8 // Vesti 24.06.2014 http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/44240